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The Winter Siege and Kyiv's Desperate Search for Air Defence

Monday, 10 November 2025 11:19

Summary

As winter approaches, Russia has intensified its aerial campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, launching one of the largest barrages of drones and missiles since the start of the full-scale invasion, plunging millions into rolling blackouts and causing critical damage to power generation facilities. In response to this renewed siege, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly stated a critical need for 25 Patriot air defence systems, a long-term acquisition that highlights the immense challenge of protecting the country's vast airspace against sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles. Simultaneously, the diplomatic front remains frozen, with Moscow reiterating its hardline demands for any peace settlement, while Kyiv grapples with the internal pressures of a protracted conflict, including a persistent crisis of military mobilisation and draft evasion.

The Return of the Blackout Terror

The onset of the colder months has brought with it a renewed and devastating Russian aerial campaign, specifically targeting Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure1,2. In early November 2025, the country experienced one of the most massive strikes since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, with Moscow launching a barrage of over 450 drones and 45 missiles3,4. The sheer scale of the attack overwhelmed air defences in several regions, with 26 missiles and 52 drones successfully striking 25 locations across four oblasts4. The consequences were immediate and severe, leading to emergency power outages and the introduction of rolling blackouts across much of the country1,5. Kyiv, the capital, faced scheduled power cuts lasting up to 12 hours a day4. The strikes were particularly damaging to the nation’s power generation capacity, with all three thermal power plants operated by the state-owned energy company, Centrenergo, being simultaneously damaged and taken offline6,7. This latest wave of attacks has demonstrated a tactical shift by the Russian military, which is now attempting to strike both power generation facilities and transmission networks concurrently, a strategy that complicates and slows the process of restoring a stable electricity supply8. Beyond the infrastructure damage, the attacks resulted in civilian casualties9. A drone strike on an apartment building in Dnipro killed three people and injured at least 12 others9,10. Further fatalities were reported in the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions, bringing the total number of confirmed deaths from the November 8th strikes to at least seven9,10. The city of Dnipro declared a period of mourning following the attack7.

The Twenty-Five Patriot Imperative

In direct response to the escalating aerial siege, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has articulated a clear and ambitious requirement for Ukraine’s air defence: the acquisition of 25 Patriot air defence systems11,12. The President stated that this number is necessary to fully defend the country’s airspace and provide comprehensive protection against the relentless Russian missile attacks11. The Patriot system, a sophisticated surface-to-air missile battery, is considered the most advanced Western-manufactured air defence system and is uniquely capable of consistently intercepting Russian ballistic missiles13. The request is not for an immediate delivery but is part of a long-term arrangement, with Kyiv and the United States preparing a contract for the supply of the 25 systems14. The delivery is expected to be staggered over several years, with varying quantities arriving annually, a reflection of the high global demand and the years-long waiting lists for the batteries and their interceptor missiles13,14. Ukrainian officials have indicated that they are exploring options to expedite the process, including prioritising the delivery of US-owned Patriot systems currently stationed in Europe, provided there is the necessary political will and goodwill from all partners14. The funding for this substantial military procurement is anticipated to be sourced primarily from frozen Russian assets, supplemented by Ukraine’s bilateral security agreements with its international partners14. The focus on the Patriot system underscores the critical nature of air superiority in the conflict, as Russia continues to use its missile and drone arsenal to systematically degrade Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure ahead of the winter12.

The Diplomatic Deadlock

While the military conflict intensifies, the diplomatic track remains firmly stalled, with both Moscow and Kyiv maintaining maximalist positions15,16. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently reiterated Moscow’s hardline stance, asserting that any resolution to the conflict is ‘impossible’ without fully taking into account Russia’s ‘legitimate interests’ and addressing the ‘root causes’ of the war15,17. This language signals a continued refusal by the Kremlin to soften its demands, which include the non-negotiable status of Crimea and the territories Moscow claims to have annexed18. Lavrov also expressed a readiness to meet in person with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the ‘Ukraine issue’ and bilateral relations17,19. This offer of dialogue follows reports that a planned summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump was cancelled after the Russian Foreign Ministry indicated it would not compromise on its core demands regarding Ukraine19. The Russian position continues to frame the conflict as a consequence of an aggressive West, a narrative that serves to justify its ongoing military actions18. Meanwhile, Kyiv is actively working to increase international pressure on Moscow15. President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine and its European partners are preparing a 20th package of sanctions, which is expected to target Russian legal entities and individuals who continue to profit from energy resources15. The diplomatic impasse is further complicated by the ongoing military situation on the ground, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region15. Fighting remains intense around the city of Pokrovsk, a strategic objective for Russian forces, though the rate of their advance has reportedly slowed as they consolidate logistics and bring up reinforcements15,20.

The Mobilisation Crisis and the Five-Year Contract

The protracted nature of the conflict has created a significant and growing challenge for Ukraine’s military recruitment efforts21. The country is grappling with a widespread problem of draft evasion, a societal tension that pits strong public support for the military against a reluctance among many men who have not yet volunteered to join the fighting22,23. The need to replenish depleted frontline units led to the adoption of a new mobilisation law in April 2024, which lowered the minimum conscription age from 27 to 25 and simplified the process for identifying eligible conscripts24,25. Despite these legislative changes, the issue persists, with some draft-age men paying thousands of dollars to smugglers to illegally cross the border and escape the country22. In an effort to ease public anxiety and encourage voluntary enlistment, the government is preparing to overhaul its recruitment system by replacing indefinite military contracts with fixed five-year service agreements21. This move is intended to provide potential recruits with a clear end date to their service, thereby making the prospect of joining the armed forces more palatable21. The reform is an additional step in the ongoing military reform effort and is not intended to replace the general mobilisation process21. The manpower shortage is considered by some military analysts to be a more significant challenge than the lack of ammunition, with some commanders noting that a single soldier is often forced to perform the duties of three or four25. Simultaneously, Russia is also intensifying its own conscription efforts, incorporating the temporarily occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson into its Southern Military District, a move that lays the groundwork for the illegal forced conscription of Ukrainian citizens in those territories26.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine has entered a phase defined by a brutal aerial attrition campaign and a deepening strategic stalemate. Russia’s systematic targeting of energy infrastructure, a tactic designed to inflict maximum civilian hardship as winter descends, has made the acquisition of advanced air defence systems an existential priority for Kyiv1,12. President Zelenskyy’s request for 25 Patriot systems is a stark measure of the scale of the threat and the long-term commitment required from Western partners to secure Ukraine’s skies11,14. On the diplomatic front, the chasm between Moscow’s demands for a settlement based on its ‘legitimate interests’ and Kyiv’s refusal to cede territory remains unbridgeable, ensuring the continuation of the conflict15,18. Internally, the challenge of sustaining the fighting force is manifesting in a crisis of mobilisation, prompting the government to introduce structural reforms like the five-year contract to address the widespread issue of draft evasion21,22. The coming months will test the resilience of Ukraine’s power grid, the effectiveness of its air defence shield, and the political will of its allies to provide the necessary resources to withstand a winter siege that is as much about psychological warfare as it is about military strategy8,12.

References

  1. Ukraine war briefing: Russia unleashes attack on energy infrastructure, triggering power cuts

    Supports the information about the massive Russian attack on energy infrastructure in early November 2025 and the resulting power cuts.

  2. Zelenskyy seeks Patriot systems from US to counter Russia's power grid attacks

    Confirms the relentless nature of Russian aerial attacks leading to rolling blackouts and the context for the Patriot request.

  3. Ukraine war latest: Russia launches 'one of the largest' attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since start of war

    Provides details on the scale of the November 8-9 attack, including the number of drones and missiles launched.

  4. Ukrainian Power Outages Follow 'Massive' Russian Attack on Electric Grid

    Details the impact of the massive strike, including the number of missiles and drones that hit targets, the resulting power outages, and the duration of blackouts in Kyiv.

  5. Massive Russian attack hits Ukraine energy infrastructure: Kyiv

    Confirms the massive nature of the attack and the introduction of emergency power cuts in several regions.

  6. Changed Russian energy attack tactics complicate Ukraine's blackout recovery - Energy Ministry

    Explains the new Russian tactic of simultaneously hitting generation and transmission networks and confirms that all three Centrenergo thermal plants went offline.

  7. Russian attacks kill 3 and injure 18 in Donetsk and Kherson oblasts over past day

    Confirms the damage to all Centrenergo thermal power plants and the city of Dnipro declaring mourning after the November 8 attack.

  8. Changed Russian energy attack tactics complicate Ukraine's blackout recovery - Energy Ministry

    Supports the information about the Russian military's shift in tactics to simultaneously hit power generation and transmission networks.

  9. Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities kill at least seven

    Provides the total casualty count of at least seven killed and details the locations of the deaths (Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia).

  10. Ukrainian Power Outages Follow 'Massive' Russian Attack on Electric Grid

    Confirms the casualties in Dnipro (three killed, 12 injured) and the other locations (Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv).

  11. Ukraine needs 25 Patriot air defense systems and more F-16 warplanes, President Zelenskyy says

    Cites President Zelenskyy's statement on the need for 25 Patriot systems to fully defend Ukraine's airspace.

  12. Zelenskyy: Ukraine Seeks to Buy 27 Patriot Systems From US Manufacturers

    Confirms the intention to order Patriot systems from US manufacturers as Russia pounds energy infrastructure.

  13. Ukraine preparing long-term contract for 25 Patriot systems after meetings in US, Zelensky says

    Explains the Patriot system's capability against ballistic missiles, the high demand, and the long-term, multi-year nature of the proposed contract.

  14. Ukraine, US preparing contract for supply of 25 Patriot air defense systems to Kyiv: Zelenskyy

    Details the contract preparation, the staggered delivery, the idea of prioritising US-owned systems in Europe, and the expected funding sources (frozen Russian assets, security agreements).

  15. Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1355

    Cites Lavrov's comments on the conditions for ending the war, the ongoing fighting near Pokrovsk, and Zelenskyy's announcement of a new sanctions package.

  16. Lavrov Says He's Ready to Meet Rubio. But What's the Goal?

    Supports the information on Lavrov's willingness to meet Rubio but his emphasis on Russia's unchanged conditions for ending the war.

  17. Russia's Lavrov says he is ready to meet Rubio in person to discuss war in Ukraine

    Confirms Lavrov's readiness to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his reiteration of the hardline stance on Russian interests.

  18. Lavrov Ready to Meet Rubio, Awaits Confirmation of Anchorage Agreement

    Reaffirms Russia's position that Crimea is an integral part of the Russian Federation and the illegality of seizing frozen Russian assets.

  19. US facing headwinds in convincing Zelenskyy, NATO allies, ready to meet Rubio: Russian FM Lavrov

    Mentions the reported cancellation of the Putin-Trump summit and the context of Lavrov's comments.

  20. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9, 2025

    Provides military assessment on the fighting around Pokrovsk and the temporary decrease in the rate of Russian advances.

  21. Ukraine Rewrites Military Contracts Amid Draft Crisis

    Details the plan to replace indefinite military contracts with five-year terms to reduce draft evasion and the context of the ongoing crisis.

  22. As mobilization rules kick in, some Ukrainian men pay to flee, dodging draft

    Highlights the issue of draft evasion, the high costs men pay to smugglers to illegally leave the country, and the societal tension surrounding conscription.

  23. Ukrainian conscription crisis

    Provides context on the mobilisation controversy, the need to maintain troop numbers, and the political and human rights balance.

  24. Ukraine reforming recruitment system to attract 18-25-year-olds, senior official says

    Confirms the April 2024 mobilisation law updates, including the lowering of the conscription age to 25.

  25. Ukrainian conscription crisis

    Cites the military analyst's view on the manpower shortage being more significant than the ammo shortage and the resulting strain on soldiers.

  26. Moscow inches closer to forcing more Ukrainians from occupied territories to fight for Russia

    Reports on Russia's move to incorporate occupied Ukrainian regions into its Southern Military District to expand forced conscription.